After watching the season premiere of Game of Thrones Season 7, I contemplated House Lannister’s current status in the War of the Five Kings. As Jaime stated, the Lannisters are finally losing the war now that they are without allies or resources and surrounded by enemies. With Tommen “Baratheon” dead, I expect the Stormlands to rise in rebellion now that they have no Great House to lead them. I can expect the same from the Riverlands now that House Tully is deposed and House Frey is exterminated. After the losses they took throughout the war, I calculate House Lannister’s military strength to be half of what it was at the start of the war, which would be around 30,000 men. Since they hold King’s Landing, they could raise new levies from the Crownlands, but that will only increase their army by another 15,000 men, which is still not enough. With the Freys and Boltons extinct and Tyrells abandoning them as well as the loss of their gold mines, the Lannisters will not have the resources to feed their armies, fund their war effort, or pay back the Iron Bank of Braavos when they arrive. To make up for their lack of allies, the Lannisters became desperate enough to side with the ironborn, who have of fifty-fifty chance of turning on them. Worst factor of all is the fact that Cersei has lost all grasp on reality with delusions of grandeur. She think she can win the war even though the entire realm has turned on her family. The Mad King started out like this before his mind degenerated into an insane mush. As usual, I think Cersei is wanting power for the sake of power, which is a dangerous mindset for a monarch to possess because it will eventually drive them mad with hubris. Also, the smartest living Lannister Tyrion has sided with the largest and most powerful faction in the whole war, Daenerys Targaryen. While Tyrion is smarter than Cersei and Jaime combined, when you combine his wits with Daenerys’s numbers and firepower you have an unstoppable force that will crush the Lannisters once and for all. The Lannisters have been winning the war and staying in power only when the Tyrells sided with them, which allowed them to recover from their loses from the Stark armies. Overall, the odds are not on the Lannisters’ side and it is likely they will not survive the ultimate outcome of the War of the Five Kings. The gold lions are doomed and they will acknowledge that they are not the only ones who pay their debts!


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